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Statistical rules of thumb Gerald van Belle
Publisher: Wiley

The numbers will follow but here are some takeaways (I didn't do any statistical analysis, this is just me eyeballing numbers and drawing conclusions that are probably not statistically significant): The rule of thumb is certainly good in terms of rules of thumb, I wouldn't follow it to the ends o f the Earth but it's definitely better than nothing. 7- The greatest inferential mistake: "This event never happens in my market. So statistics can play a very useful role in testing these rules of thumb, and sometimes things which you think are working are not actually working. Nearly four decades ago, as staff economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Taleb's rules of thumb on trader risk management, which I have quoted in full below. You will build an instinctive inference that is more powerful than conventional statistics. System (BOG), Poole presented a reactive rule of thumb that he argued could serve as a robust guide to policy decisions (Poole, 1971). Another standard hard science method is statistical inference. Looking at the distribution with 1 degree of freedom (B depends on A so there's just one degree of freedom), we need to exceed 3.8 for 95% confidence and 6.6 for 99% confidence. Sheshkin - Handbook of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Procedures. Proponent of rules of thumb for monetary policy. None of the three seem to follow the rule with any sort of consistency but they are all in the ballpark of the rule, but not by much. Van Belle - Statistical Rules of Thumb. But that's a complement to judgment. More recently, as president of the Federal Reserve different statistical properties of the alternative measures could in principle influence, perhaps in subtle ways, the specification of a rule of thumb. 6- Never let a day go by without studying the changes in the prices of all available trading instruments. My fascination with his ideas led me to DerivativesStrategy.com which published Mr. That's not a substitute for judgment. Snedecor -Statistical Methods, 8th ed.